Situation
Compared to Q4 2005, GDP rose by 3.28 % p.a . ( 2.73 % p.a in Q3 2006)
Compared to Q3 2006 -GDP by 0.9 % in Q4 2006. (Q3 2006 - was at 0.6%)
In Q4 2006 GDP rose by 3.07 % p.a in the US (after 2.96 % p.a in Q3 2006) and by 2.3 % p.a in Japan (after 1.52 % p.a in Q3 2006).
Over the whole year 2006, GDP grew by 2.6 % p.a (compared to 1.4% p.a for 2005)
Over the whole year 2006, GDP grew by 3.3 % p.a in the US (3.2 % p.a in 2005) and by 2.2 % p.a in Japan (1.9 % p.a in 2005).
Conclusion
( click/double click on the chart for the bigger picture)
Based on the following issues:
- The ratcheting up of interest rates by the ECB
- The slowdown in growth in New Orders index
- Production Index looks like it is preparing to slow down too ( New orders slowdown will carry an impact)
GDP can be expected to remain within a 3% p.a towards 4% p.a growth rate - for Q1 and possibly Q2 2007. However from Q3 2007 GDP could start dropping to the 1.5% p.a growth rate towards mid 2008.