Intelligentguess

Situation 

On a monthly basis - New orders were down to a  negative growth of -0.19% in Jan’07 as compared to Dec’06.
(growth of 1.76% in Dec’06 and 0.76% in Nov’06 )

On an annual basis - New orders increased by 9.99 % p.a ( growth of 6.41% p.a in Dec’06 and  7.22% p.a in Nov’06 )

Background

1. Interest rates have been raised in Dec’06 towards 3.5% and in Mar’07 towards 3.75%.
2. While the annual growth rates seem to have improved ( from a 6.41% p.a to a 9.99% p.a  ) it may not be sustainable.

•  The hike in interest rate in Dec’06  has already curbed monthly growth rate for Jan’07. The effects of the hike could curb monthly growth rates in Feb’07 - Mar’07 too.
• The second hike in Mar’07 would have effects on the monthly growth rates from Apr’07 towards June’07.
• In order for the annual rates to sustain at a 10% p.a growth rate the monthly growth rate for Feb’07 would need to be at 2.98%. The montly growth rates have been ranging between 2.98% to a -1.31% for the past 12 months.

Conclusion ( click on pic for a larger visual)

At best the New orders growth ( annual) will sustain at 10% p.a . It is more likely to drop to a 7.5% p.a - 8.5% p.a  towards Feb’07 - Mar’07.

The effects of the Mar’07 hike will keep New orders growth range below 10% towards a minimum of 6.4% towards Jun’07 - Jul’07.

- The Production Indices ( IIP )  cannot be expected to rise in the coming 2-3 months ( read also: Euro area Industrial Production )

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Sri Lankan, Lasith Malinga achieved a feat never achieved before in the game of Cricket.

He took four wickets in four balls  in Sri Lanka’s game against South Africa today. Not surprisingly, this has turned out to be the best game in the ongoing world cup so far.

Savour the following description of the feat from a Cricinfo report

An extraordinary spell of fast bowling from Lasith Malinga, where he strung together a devastating sequence of four wickets in four balls, threatened to produce the greatest one-day heist before South Africa scrambled to a dramatic one-wicket victory in a heart-stopping Super Eights clash in Guyana.

South Africa needed a meagre four runs to win with five wickets in hand when Malinga finished batsmen as if swatting flies. He fooled Shaun Pollock with a beauty of a slower ball before hurrying Andrew Hall with a juddering yorker that looped up to cover. The first ball of the next over produced the hat-trick, the fifth in World Cups, when the set Jacques Kallis nicked to the wicketkeeper before a brute of a yorker zoomed past Makhaya Ntini.

Malinga’s burst overshadowed the first five-wicket haul of the tournament - Langeveldt’s 5 for 39 which restricted Sri Lanka to 209.

Malinga’s feat is probably even more difficult to achieve than the six sixes that Herschelle Gibbs delivered against Holland.

Congratulations all around are in order.

Update : Here’s the video of the feat. It’s slightly long (over 5 mins), but worth watching every bit of it.

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