Situation
On a monthly basis - Orders grew by 5.5% in Feb’07 as compared to 10.59 % in Jan’07
On an annual basis - Orders grew by 6.31% p.a in Feb’07 as compared to 11.06 % p.a in Jan’07
Background
- New Orders growth rate improved in Jan’07 as compared to Dec’06.
- Production grew moderately in Feb’07.
Conclusion 
(click on image for larger visual )
- Orders can be expected to range between a 0% -10% p.a growth till mid’07. ( range looks ” rather large” but have a look at the visual - and you will get the picture )
- Post mid ‘07 Orders can be expeced to contract to a negative area towards mid’08
- The recent growth in orders for both Jan’07 and Feb’07 should translate into a higher growth in production for Mar’07 and April’07.
Note :
Production growth rates of in Oct, Nov and Dec’07 were at 6.92%, 4.92%, and 4.58% respectvely on a per annum basis. This translated to a GDP growth rate of 2.52% p.a in Q4 2006.
The Jan and Feb’07 growth rates in production are at 2.86% and 3.96% per annum respectively.
The Q1 2007 GDP growth does look like it will grow at a slower pace/far slower pace than Q4 2006 .
Related links