Situation ( click on visual to get an idea of the 12 month rolling trend)

The deficit for the month of Mar’07  was at -96.71 Bn US $ ( as compared to -85.28 Bn US $ in Mar’06). This represents a 12.89% increase per annum

The deficit in Mar’07 dropped by 19.77% as compared to Feb’07 ( but this drop is a normal occurrence between Feb and Mar )

 

Background ( click on image for a better visual)

Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP  has been on an increasing trend since 2006 Q2.

  • The Q4 2006 deficit was -80.40 Bn US $.
  • Fiscal Deficit as a % of GDP now stands at -2.39% for Q4 2006.

The Q1 2007 deficit now stands at -178 Bn US $

 

Conclusion

Even if the GDP grows in Q1 2007 at the same rate as Q4 2006 - the deficit will increase to 5 % of the GDP for Q1 2007.

 

Related Links

  1. USA - Fiscal situation as a percentage of GDP, under the recent four Presidencies ( since 1980 )
  2. Fiscal Deficit and Savings rate ( since 1981 )
  3. Manner in which the Deficit has been financed since 1995 ( Savings viz external debt)
  4. Relationship between Total Debt ( data from 1929) and External debt as a % of the GDP (data from 1995)
  5. USA - Relationship between GDP and Savings rate ( Quarterly data since 1985 )