Intelligentguess

Analysis of Market Economics

May 11th, 2007

UK - Production - annual growth rate slips to a negative in Mar’07

 

Situation

On a monthly basis : Production increased by  0.20 % in Mar’07 ( - 0.30 % decline in Feb’07)

On a yearly basis : Production decreased by -0.20 % p.a in Mar’07 (revised to a 0.30% p.a growth in Feb’07)

 

Back ground

  • Bank of England has hiked the interest rates for the  4th  time since Aug’06 to 5.50% 
  • GDP growth rate for Q1 2007 is at 2.86% p.a ( 2.90% p.a in Q4 2006)

 

Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual)

  • The hike in rates may have begun to hurt production growth ( and could hurt it further from Jun’07)
  • Production growth can be expected to range between a +0.70% p.a, to a negative - 0.70% p.a for the coming months
  • The recent hikes in rates , along with slump in global demand could drag down the production towards the - 2.00% area from Mid 2007 towards 2008

 

 

Related links

 

 

May 11th, 2007

UK - Bank Rate hiked as expected

 

Situation

The Bank of England’s ( BOE )Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.

 

Background ( click on image for a larger visual) 

  1. The Bank of Englands inflation target is 2%. This is expressed in terms of an annual rate of inflation based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).
  2. Inflation ( CPI) is at its highest levels since Sept’92
  3. Producer prices have been moving up sharply
  4. GDP growth rate is at 2.86% in Q1 2007 ( as compared to 2.90% in Q4 2006) , inspite of the renewed rate hikes that began in Aug’06 ( where rate was at 4.50% ) 

 

 

BOE’s opinion is :

CPI inflation picked up to 3.1% in March. Lower gas and electricity prices and weaker import price inflation mean that CPI inflation is likely to fall back to around the 2% target in the course of this year. But the margin of spare capacity in firms appears limited and there are signs that businesses are more able to push through price increases. Relative to the 2% target, the risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term consequently remain tilted to the upside.

 

Related links

May 11th, 2007

USA - Fed meeting : No change in interest rate ( Fed remains open to hiking rates)

 

Situation

The Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) met on May 10th 2007. The FOMC releases a statement after their meeting - reflecting the Interest rate decision and their thinking about the future.

Statements are standardized so that there is no room for a mis - understanding.

Comparing statements of the past - to the current statement can give us a clue on how the FOMC thinking is changing and in which direction they are pulling towards.

Have broken down and then compared the statement released after the Jan’31st 2007 meeting to the last two statements. Items in Bold Red Italics highlight the differences in thinking.

The next FOMC meeting is on  June 27th  

 

Jan 31st Fed Statement   March 21st Fed Statement  May 9th Fed Statement Translation / Difference between the statements  
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5.25%.  The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5.25%.  

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5.25%. 

 

 

 Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth.  

 

Recent indicators have been mixed . Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year
  • Pressure on growth.
  • No interest rate hike.
Some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market.   Adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing Adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing
  • Stabilization not happened as yet. 
  • No interest rate drop 
Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters. 

 Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.  

 

Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters No interest rate drop

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months.

 

Readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Core inflation remains somewhat elevated.  
  • Elevated inflation concern exists.
  • Interest rate hike 
Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time. However, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures .   Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time - the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

 

  • Elevated inflation concern exists.
  • No interest rate drops
 The Committee judges that some inflation risks remain.  In these circumstances, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.  

In these circumstances, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.  

 

  • Elevated inflation concern exists.
  • Interest rate hike

The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

 

 Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. Interest rate hikes possible

 

Conclusion

  1. Inflation remains high. Therefore the tilt towards HIGHER interest rates remains ( see previous FOMC statement
  2. Q1 2007 GDP growth being low, there may not be an increase being considered for the June 27th meeting.
  3. Language suggests that rates will not be dropped in the June 27th meeting 

 

Related links

  1. USA - Q1 2007 GDP annual growth slumps to its lowest since 2003 Q3
  2. USA - Inflation (CPI) inches up in Mar’07 , while core inflation drops
  3. USA - Producer prices continue to grow in Mar’07
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