Intelligentguess

Analysis of Market Economics

May 18th, 2007

USA - Production growth in Apr’07 at its lowest pace since Apr’04

 

Situation

On a monthly basis production increased by 0.7 % in Apr’07 ( - 0.3 % decline in Mar’07)

On a yearly basis  increased by 1.9 % p.a in Apr’07 ( 2.1 % p.a decline in Mar’07)

 

Background

 

Conclusion ( click on image for a larger visual) 

  1. Production growth can be expected to range between 1.90% p.a and 4.2% p.a growth towards mid’07 .
  2. Possibilities of drops below 1.90% exists thanks to the Orders,Shipments and Inventories position
  3. This could be followed by a further drop down towards (- 5.0%) towards end of 2007 early 2008.

 

 

Related links

 

 

May 18th, 2007

Euro area - Production growth sustained in Mar’07

 

 

Situation

  • On a monthly basis production grew by 0.44%   ( 0.47% growth in Feb’07)
  • On a yearly basis production grew by 3.80% p.a ( 4.02% p.a growth in Feb’07)

 

Background

 

Conclusion 

  1. Initial movement between a low of 2.2% p.a upto a upside of 5.4% p.a upto Mid ‘07
  2. Growth drops towards a “0% ” after Mid ‘07 towards mid ‘08

 

 

 

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May 18th, 2007

Japan - Producer prices rise in Apr’07

Situation

  • On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.79 % (0.30 % in Mar’07)
  • On an annual basis prices rose by  2.20 % p.a ( 2.01% p.a in Mar’07)

 

Background

 

Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual)

 

Producer prices look like heading towards a 1.35% p.a

 

The possible impact of the recent Producer prices and Consumer Prices on the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japanwill be taken up in a separate report, due shortly.

 

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