Situation
- On a Quarterly basis GDP grew by 0.16% ( was 0.61% in Q4 2006)
- On an annual basis GDP grew by 1.90% p.a in Q1 2007 ( was 3.128% p.a in Q4 2006)
Background
- New orders have grown in Apr’077 ( for the first time since Sept’06)
- Production in Apr’07 grew at the slowest pace since Apr’04 ( reflecting the weak New Orders situation in Q1 2007 )
- USA - Producers prices remain high in Apr ‘07
- USA - Inflation rate (CPI) drops marginally in Apr’07
- USA - Record fiscal surplus in Apr’07 (highest since Apr’01)
- USA - Fed meeting : No change in interest rate ( Fed remains open to hiking rates)
Crosshair
GDP p.a % growth
| USA | Euro Zone | Japan | UK | India | |
| 2006q01 |
3.69% |
2.23% |
2.73% |
2.43% |
10.35% |
| 2006q02 |
3.51% |
2.85% |
2.12% |
2.75% |
8.89% |
| 2006q03 |
2.95% |
2.79% |
1.45% |
2.90% |
9.22% |
| 2006q04 |
3.13% |
3.33% |
2.38% |
2.96% |
8.64% |
| 2007q01 |
1.90% |
3.42% |
2.19% |
2.85% |
9.08% |
Conclusion
Even considering a possible drop in fed rates post Aug’07 - GDP growth looks like dropping down to a 1.00% p.a towards end 2007
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