Situation

  • On a monthly basis orders grew by 0.30%  ( 4.1 % in Mar’07)
  • On a yearly basis orders grew by 0.978 % p.a ( dropped by -1.019 % p.a  in Mar’07)

Background

  • Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased 0.8% (2.1% March increase)
  • Inventories, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased 0.5%. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 0.2 percent March increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.24, down from 1.25 in March.

 

Conclusion

  1. We can expect an initial range between - 2.0% p.a and +2.5% p.a growth 
  2. A drop down towards -5.0% p.a to -6.0% p.a towards end of 2007 early 2008

 

 

 

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