Intelligentguess

Situation

• On a monthly basis production contracted by -0.83%  ( grew by 0.54% in Mar’07)
• On a yearly basis production has grown by 3.06 % p.a ( grew by 3.95 % p.a in Mar’07)

Background

• Production has been on a downward trend since May’06 ( 5.64% p.a)
• The ECB raised interest rates to 4.00% on June 6 2007

Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual) 

• Production looks like dropping to a maximum of a 2.4% p.a area, and then rising towards 5% p.a towards Sept ‘07.
• Post Sept’07 growth looks like dropping to a 0% p.a towards mid ‘08

Related links

• Euro area - Production (IIP) grows in Feb’07
• UK - Production remains down in Apr’07
• Japan - Production grows at a declining rate in Apr’07
• USA - Production grows in Mar’07 at the slowest pace since Sept’05
• India - IIP continues to grow in Apr’07

• USA - New orders grow for the first time since Sept’06
• Europe - New Orders grow in Mar’07
• Japan - Orders grow marginally in Apr’07

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Situation

• On a monthly basis production contracted by -11.3%  ( grew by 14.6 % in Mar’07)
• On a yearly basis production has grown by  13.60 % p.a ( grew by 14.5% p.a in Mar’07)

Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual)

• On a 3 month rolling average basis the IIP looks like dropping towards 10.5% p.a towards Jun’07.
• IIP could then drop further to 9% p.a towards end ‘07

Note : On the basis of actual interaction with few of the major automobile, textile and garment manufacturers (on the basis of the day to day work  I am involved in) production was already down over the previous quarter, and is expected to remain this way until Sept-Oct’07.

• Amongst Automobile manufacturers the drop is towards 10% - 15%
• Amongst the larger textile manufacturers the drop is about 15%
• Amongst the garment manufacturers , production is down by 30% ( essentially dollar sales have stopped)

As such seeing a 13.60% p.a growth in Apr’07 is  pretty surprising 

 

Related links

• India - Production grows in Mar’07
• UK - Production remains down in Apr’07
• Japan - Production grows at a declining rate in Apr’07
• Euro area - Production (IIP) grows in Feb’07
• USA - Production grows in Mar’07 at the slowest pace since Sept’05

• USA - New orders grow for the first time since Sept’06
• Europe - New Orders grow in Mar’07
• Japan - Orders grow marginally in Apr’07

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