Intelligentguess

Analysis of Market Economics

December 13th, 2007

Alan Greenspan - The chutzpah!!!

Alan Greenspan has written an article in the Wall Street Journal on the ongoing mortgage crisis in America.

In it, he lays the blame for the crisis on almost everything else (including the collapse of the Soviet union) but for his own actions of keeping rates too low for too long as the Fed Chairman, even at times expressing helplessness.

Read this excerpt for an example

There was clearly little the world’s central banks could do to temper this most recent surge in human euphoria, in some ways reminiscent of the Dutch Tulip craze of the 17th century and South Sea Bubble of the 18th century.

There is a clear unwillingness to take responsibility for the consequences of the Fed’s actions (or should I say inactions). I would tend to agree with Mark Thoma who at the end of this post says

Was the crisis his fault? I wouldn’t go that far. Could he have done more to prevent it or reduce its severity? Here I think the answer is yes.

While Greenspan laments the lack of control that central banks had on long term interest rates, most of the crisis has been caused by loans taken on very low adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) which in turn fueled a rise in asset prices to bubble type levels. ARMs are marked to short term interest rates, which have a more or less direct relationship to central bank policy action.

On this count too, the maestro seems to have got it wrong.

Finally, the punchline is delivered by Paul Krugman who says that

He once described Greenspan like a man who suggests leaving the barn door ajar, and then - after the horse is gone - delivers a lecture on the importance of keeping your animals properly locked up.

December 8th, 2007

Adams Square Funding - RIP : From AAA to zilch in a year

First there was Carina

Now, Adams Square Funding I Ltd - A Credit Suisse managed hybrid CDO has gone into liquidation recently (Bloomberg Report).

Further discussions at FT Alphaville and Calculated Risk show that even holders of AAA securities under the said CDO received nothing. Notable is the fact that this CDO was originated just a year ago.

So, it took all of one year for the highest rated securities to go into default. This must be one of the fastest moves from AAA to D. (though S&P had been putting such structures on rating watch - that’s no solace however for investors who believed in the ability of the rating folks to assess credit risk)

Soundly illustrates the power that rating agencies had begun to command and the lack of homework or due diligence being done by investors.

A lesson in all this is - if you can’t understand it do not invest in it. Did someone say Caveat Emptor.

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